Pakistan India Conflict

Pakistan – Indian Dogfight

The conflict between the two rivals Pakistan and India on May 7, 2025 seems to have global implications.

We witnessed what was probably the largest air battle the world had seen since World War II. With over a hundred aircraft firing missiles at each other for two hours, it was arguably the largest air-to-air battle in modern history.

Pakistan seems to have emerged victorious from this conflict. Pakistani sources claim to have shot down 5 Indian warplanes, 3 of which were French-made Rafale aircraft. When looking at the debris images released, it is clear that 2 Rafale aircraft were definitely shot down.

So how did Pakistan achieve such success? This question requires some analysis. We can observe the success under three separate headlines: Training, Technology and Tactics.

1) Training

The human factor is the key element of success. In order to be victorious and survive, soldiers at every level, from the one who pulls the trigger to the one who prepares the plane for flight, must be very well trained.

As someone who has previously participated in exercises with Pakistani pilots and flown with exchange pilots sent to Turkey, I can easily say that the training level of Pakistani pilots is really high.

The Pakistani Air Force has been participating in the Anatolian Eagle exercises held in Turkey for many years. These exercises have the same characteristics as the Red Flag exercises conducted in the US. In the Anatolian Eagle training area, air warfare can be exercised in conditions closest to reality. Such exercises, which simulate real warfare, provide pilots with great experience.

We know that the Pakistani Air Force also participated in the Red Flag exercise in the US. Therefore, Pakistani pilots had practiced air combat similar to the one that took place on May 7 many times in their training, so they did not encounter any surprises. This was their biggest advantage. As for Indian pilots, it is not possible to say that they have much experience in international exercises and training.

2) Technology

Undoubtedly, one of the most important factors that determines the winner of a war is the technology of the weapons used. Previously, the main striking force of the Pakistani Air Force was the F-16 fighter jets. Pakistan added 24 new F-16 Block 52+ aircraft to its fleet in 2005. However, we see that these aircraft are not used in intercept missions. Because the radars of the F-16 aircraft in the Pakistani Air Force are still old technology (AN/APG-68 radar). The emergence of AESA technology has changed the game in fire control radars.

After Pakistan received J-10C aircraft with EASA radars from China, it must have tested these aircraft against its own F-16s in training. The J-10Cs must have gained superiority over western-made F-16 and their weapons, so that the Pakistani air force began using J-10C as interceptor aircraft. This preference shows that J-10C aircraft have significant capabilities.

When comparing the French-made Rafale and the Chinese-made J-10C aircraft, the information we had so far showed that the Rafale was superior. However, the actual conflict showed that this was not the case.

The Anatolian Eagle exercises showed us in an air-to-air battle, interceptor aircraft mostly shoot each other down with beyond-visual-range missiles without seeing each other, and close-range dogfights almost never occur. In light of this information, if we put aside the maneuverability of the aircraft, we can say that an interceptor aircraft must have 3 basic advantages in order to gain an advantage over an enemy aircraft. 1. It must see the enemy first, 2. It must be able to fire at the enemy first, 3. It must have a better ability to protect itself with electronic warfare system.

Let’s compare Rafale and J-10C aircraft within the framework of these 3 items. Both aircraft have EASA radar. If we pay attention to the nose structure of the two aircraft, it seems that J-10C can carry a larger diameter antenna. This may allow it to see Rafale earlier. However, we do not know the real radar performance of the aircraft, so we cannot make a meaningful comparison. Since target information can be transferred to both aircraft via data link via Airborne Early Warning aircraft (AWACS) and ground radars, we can consider the aircraft equal in terms of early detection. Pakistan operated its data link capability very well in this conflict, which is necessary to transfer the air picture to interceptors. We will explain details in the tactics section. In contrast, we do not know what India’s data link capability is.

As for missile ranges, according to information in open sources, the PL-15E missile carried by the J-10C aircraft appears to have a longer range than the Meteor missile carried by the Rafale aircraft. However, we cannot make a meaningful comparison. Because the countries that produce these missiles may have implemented various range restrictions on their export versions. Pakistani sources say they have purchased missiles with the same specifications that China also uses. However, we do not have information about the range restrictions on the export version of the Meteor missiles that France sold to India!

As for the ability of aircraft to protect themselves against threats, no Pakistani aircraft has been shot down. So, either the J-10C aircraft’s self-protection system is very strong or there is no need to use it because there is no threat. As for India, 3 Rafale aircraft were shot down. This means that the self-protection system on the aircraft called Spectra did not work well. This could be due to two reasons. Either the system’s capability is not good or the threat library does not contain information about the J-10C aircraft and the PL-15E missile. If the operating frequencies of the threat are not in the library, it is not possible to prevent and deceive such threats.

3) Tactics

Let’s make a simple explanation on how air engagement takes place. AWACS detects the Rafale aircraft and sends target information to J-10C via data link. J-10C fires the PL-15E missile according to the information received from AWACS, but does not lock on the target with its own radar. Thus, Rafale aircraft does not aware that an enemy aircraft has locked on to it. Data link is maintained between the missile in the air and the firing aircraft, so the current target position is constantly updated to the missile. The missile continues to approach the target. At this time, the missile’s own radar is still inactive. Since the J-10C aircraft does not have a radar lock on the Rafale, and the missile coming does not have a lock on the target, the Rafale is still unaware of the enemy engaging him.

The PL-15E missile is an active radar guided missile. The missile’s own radar is probably activated 15-30 seconds before impact. Since reaction time is very short, the distance is very close and the PL-15E’s own radar is EASA based, jamming will not be effective at that position. In this case, it is not possible for Rafale to survive. The attack on the Rafale with this tactic was a complete surprise and achieved a very significant success.

Global Effects

After this conflict, the Chinese released video clips of the factory where the PL-15E missiles were produced. The missiles were produced by robotics technology without human intervention. With these images, China gave the world the message that it could produce a large number of missiles in a very short time. Air-to-air missiles are very expensive weapons, and China’s mass production will ensure that the price of these weapons is significantly lower. The missiles have also proven themselves in real combat. In this case, many countries will turn to China, which produces much cheaper but effective weapons than Western countries, and this will narrow the Western arms market. In the past, Western companies and Russian companies were in competition in the market, but I think the Chinese will replace the Russians in the coming years.

Osman BASIBUYUK

May 23, 2025 Ankara / Turkiye